Irreversible Investment, Real Options, and Competition: Evidence from Real Estate Development

We examine the extent to which uncertainty delays investment and the effect of competition on this relationship using a sample of 1,214 condominium developments in Vancouver, Canada built from 1979-1998. We find that increases in both idiosyncratic and systematic risk lead developers to delay new real estate investments. Empirically, a one-standard deviation increase in the return volatility reduces the probability of investment by 13 percent, equivalent to a 9 percent decline in real prices. Increases in the number of potential competitors located near a project negate the negative relationship between idiosyncratic risk and development. These results support models in which competition erodes option values and provide clear evidence for the real options framework over alternatives such as simple risk aversion.

Glacial melt under a porous debris layer

In this paper we undertake a quantitative analysis of the dynamic process by which ice underneath a dry porous debris layer melts. We show that the incorporation of debris-layer airflow into a theoretical model of glacial melting can capture the empirically observed features of the so-called Østrem curve (a plot of the melt rate as a function of debris depth). Specifically, we show that the turning point in the Østrem curve can be caused by two distinct mechanisms: the increase in the proportion of ice that is debris-covered and/or a reduction in the evaporative heat flux as the debris layer thickens. This second effect causes an increased melt rate because the reduction in (latent) energy used for evaporation increases the amount of energy available for melting. Our model provides an explicit prediction for the melt rate and the temperature distribution within the debris layer, and provides insight into the relative importance of the two effects responsible for the maximum in the Østrem curve. We use the data of Nicholson and Benn (2006) to show that our model is consistent with existing empirical measurements

Full-Scale System for Quantifying Loads and Leak Rates of Seals for Space Applications

NASA is developing advanced space-rated vacuum seals in support of future space exploration missions to low-Earth orbit and other destinations. These seals may be 50 to 60 in. (127 to 152 cm) in diameter and must exhibit extremely low leak rates to ensure that astronauts have sufficient breathable air for extended missions to the International Space Station or the Moon. Seal compression loads must be below prescribed limits so as not to overload the mechanisms that compress them during docking or mating, and seal adhesion forces must be low to allow two mated systems to separate when required. NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a new test apparatus to measure leak rates and compression and adhesion loads of candidate full-scale seals under simulated thermal, vacuum, and engagement conditions. Tests can be performed in seal-on-seal or seal-on-flange configurations at temperatures from -76 to 140 F (-60 to 60 C) under operational pressure gradients. Nominal and off-nominal mating conditions (e.g., incomplete seal compression) can also be simulated. This paper describes the main design features of the test apparatus as well as techniques used to overcome some of the design challenges

From Behavioral Facilitation to Inhibition: The Neuronal Correlates of the Orienting and Reorienting of Auditory Attention

Successful adaptive behavior relies on the ability to automatically (bottom-up) orient attention to different locations in the environment. This results in a biphasic pattern in which reaction times (RT) are faster for stimuli that occur in the same spatial location (valid) for the first few hundred milliseconds, which is termed facilitation. This is followed by faster RT for stimuli that appear in novel locations (invalid) after longer delays, termed inhibition of return. The neuronal areas and networks involved in the transition between states of facilitation and inhibition remain poorly understood, especially for auditory stimuli. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data were therefore collected in a large sample of healthy volunteers (N = 52) at four separate auditory stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs; 200, 400, 600, and 800 ms). Behavioral results indicated that facilitation (valid RT < invalid RT) occurred at the 200 ms SOA, with inhibition of return (valid RT > invalid RT) present at the three longer SOAs. fMRI results showed several brain areas varying their activation as a function of SOA, including bilateral superior temporal gyrus, anterior thalamus, cuneus, dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus, and right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC)/anterior insula. Right VLPFC was active during a behavioral state of facilitation, and its activation (invalid – valid trials) further correlated with behavioral reorienting at the 200 ms delay. These results suggest that right VLPFC plays a critical role when auditory attention must be quickly deployed or redeployed, demanding heightened cognitive and inhibitory control. In contrast to previous work, the ventral and dorsal frontoparietal attention networks were both active during valid and invalid trials across SOAs. These results suggest that the dorsal and ventral networks may not be as specialized during bottom-up auditory orienting as has been previously reported during visual orienting

Paper Session II-B - High Efficiency Hyperspectral Imager for the Terrestrial and Atmospheric Multispectral Explorer

The Terrestrial and Atmospheric MultiSpectral Explorer1 (TAMSE) is a Space Shuttle Small Self- Contained Payload “Get-Away Special” (GAS) project, led by Principal Investigator Rolando Branly, and including remote sensing and microgravity experiments from Florida Space Institute member schools. One of these experiments is the High-Efficiency HyperSpectral Imager (HEHSI). The HEHSI project will provide a low-cost spaceflight demonstration of a novel type of imaging spectrometer with exceptional light gathering ability. HEHSI is also a demonstration of what can be achieved in space with a modest budget: $15K from the Florida Space Grant Consortium (FSGC) and$ 10K from the Florida Space Institute (FSI). Education and workforce development are important goals of the project, with all of the mechanical, electronics, and software design and testing being carried out by an interdisciplinary team of FSI students. These six students, who are about to graduate with bachelor’s degrees in engineering (three computer, one electrical, and two aerospace), have worked on the project and received course credit for two semesters. The matching funds from FSI support the involvement of the mentor for the HEHSI experiment, Glenn Sellar, who is also responsible for the optical design. Environmental testing (thermal and vibration) will be carried out by the students at KSC’s Physical Testing Laboratory, under a cooperative Space Act Agreement. As this instrument is the first remote sensing payload constructed in Florida (to the authors knowledge), it also serves as a seed for diversification of the space industry in Florida. An overview of the project is presented in this paper, including the science objectives, and the optical, mechanical, electrical, and software designs

Microbiological efficacy of early MRSA treatment in cystic fibrosis in a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate microbiological effectiveness, that is, culture negativity of a non-blinded eradication protocol (Rx) compared with observation (Obs) in clinically stable cystic fibrosis participants with newly positive methicillin resistant Staphylococcusaureus (MRSA) cultures. DESIGN: This non-blinded trial randomised participants ages 4-45 years with first or early (≤2 positive cultures within 3 years) MRSA-positive culture without MRSA-active antibiotics within 4 weeks 1:1 to Rx or Obs. The Rx protocol was: oral trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole or if sulfa-allergic, minocycline plus oral rifampin; chlorhexidine mouthwash for 2 weeks; nasal mupirocin and chlorhexidine body wipes for 5 days and environmental decontamination for 21 days. The primary end point was MRSA culture status at day 28. RESULTS: Between 1 April 2011 to September 2014, 45 participants (44% female, mean age 11.5 years) were randomised (24 Rx, 21 Obs). At day 28, 82% (n=18/22) of participants in the Rx arm compared with 26% (n=5/19) in the Obs arm were MRSA-negative. Adjusted for interim monitoring, this difference was 52% (95% CI 23% to 80%, p<0.001). Limiting analyses to participants who were MRSA-positive at the screening visit, 67% (8/12) in the Rx arm and 13% (2/15) in the Obs arm were MRSA-negative at day 28, adjusted difference: 49% (95% CI 22% to 71%, p<0.001). Fifty-four per cent in the Rx arm compared with 10% participants in the Obs arm remained MRSA-negative through day 84. Mild gastrointestinal side effects were higher in the Rx arm. CONCLUSIONS: This MRSA eradication protocol for newly acquired MRSA demonstrated microbiological efficacy with a large treatment effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01349192

Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model for missed HIV health care provider visits in a large US clinical cohort

Background: Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level. Methods: We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site-level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified. Results: Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700. Conclusions: Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence

Environmentally-acquired bacteria influence microbial diversity and natural innate immune responses at gut surfaces

Background: Early microbial colonization of the gut reduces the incidence of infectious, inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. Recent population studies reveal that childhood hygiene is a significant risk factor for development of inflammatory bowel disease, thereby reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis and the potential importance of microbial colonization during early life. The extent to which early-life environment impacts on microbial diversity of the adult gut and subsequent immune processes has not been comprehensively investigated thus far. We addressed this important question using the pig as a model to evaluate the impact of early-life environment on microbe/host gut interactions during development. Results: Genetically-related piglets were housed in either indoor or outdoor environments or in experimental isolators. Analysis of over 3,000 16S rRNA sequences revealed major differences in mucosa-adherent microbial diversity in the ileum of adult pigs attributable to differences in early-life environment. Pigs housed in a natural outdoor environment showed a dominance of Firmicutes, in particular Lactobacillus, whereas animals housed in a hygienic indoor environment had reduced Lactobacillus and higher numbers of potentially pathogenic phylotypes. Our analysis revealed a strong negative correlation between the abundance of Firmicutes and pathogenic bacterial populations in the gut. These differences were exaggerated in animals housed in experimental isolators. Affymetrix microarray technology and Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction revealed significant gut-specific gene responses also related to early-life environment. Significantly, indoor-housed pigs displayed increased expression of Type 1 interferon genes, Major Histocompatibility Complex class I and several chemokines. Gene Ontology and pathway analysis further confirmed these results. Conclusion: Early-life environment significantly affects both microbial composition of the adult gut and mucosal innate immune function. We observed that a microbiota dominated by lactobacilli may function to maintain mucosal immune homeostasis and limit pathogen colonization

Worsening calcification propensity precedes all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in haemodialyzed patients

A novel in-vitro test (T-50-test) assesses ex-vivo serum calcification propensity which predicts mortality in HD patients. The association of longitudinal changes of T-50 with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality has not been investigated. We assessed T-50 in paired sera collected at baseline and at 24 months in 188 prevalent European HD patients from the ISAR cohort, most of whom were Caucasians. Patients were followed for another 19 [interquartile range: 11-37] months. Serum T-50 exhibited a significant decline between baseline and 24 months (246 +/- 64 to 190 +/- 68 minutes;p < 0.001). With serum Delta-phosphate showing the strongest independent association with declining T-50 (r = -0.39;p < 0.001) in multivariable linear regression. The rate of decline of T-50 over 24 months was a significant predictor of all-cause (HR = 1.51 per 1SD decline, 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.2;p = 0.03) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 2.15;95% CI: 1.15 to 3.97;p = 0.02) in Kaplan Meier and multivariable Cox-regression analysis, while cross-sectional T-50 at inclusion and 24 months were not. Worsening serum calcification propensity was an independent predictor of mortality in this small cohort of prevalent HD patients. Prospective larger scaled studies are needed to assess the value of calcification propensity as a longitudinal parameter for risk stratification and monitoring of therapeutic interventions